Economists warn that the global economy could face stagflation — a combination of high inflation and slow growth — due to prolonged energy supply disruption.
Key drivers:
- Oil supply shock from geopolitical conflict
- Rising inflation in major economies (US, Europe)
- Weakening global growth outlook
Worst-case scenario:
- Oil prices could reach extreme levels (up to USD200)
- Trade disruptions affecting global supply chains
- Reduced consumer purchasing power worldwide
Business Impact:
- Lower global demand for goods and services
- Higher financing costs and tighter credit conditions
- Increased uncertainty in investment planning
Macroeconomic Effect:
- Central banks face policy challenges
- Risk of global recession increases
- Uneven impact across countries (energy exporters vs importers)
